2014 Bowl Season Public Betting

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Online PR News – 29-December-2014 – Las Vegas, Nevada – After analyzing more than 9,200 college football games from 2003 to the present, we have come to the conclusion that Bowl Season is an entity unto itself, which is to say that college football betting conclusions that can be gleaned from the regular season may not apply during the unique time of year known as Bowl Season. How the public bets can be helpful in making college football picks. The “contrarian” bettor looks to bet against whatever the majority of the public is betting. If one would have done that in all college football betting over the past 12 seasons, the winning percentage for betting against (a simple majority of the public) would have been 49.86%. Any percentage under 52.38, in the standard sports-betting world, is losing money. Therefore, simply betting against the public in college football eventually would bankrupt those who did so for long enough. Bowl Season, as mentioned earlier, is that different breed of college football betting animal. This article focuses on public betting from this Bowl Season, and it is being written after the first 18 Bowl games have been played this 2014-2015 Bowl Season.

Over the past 12 Bowl Seasons (including this one), betting against a simple majority of the public using would have been a 52.09% proposition, which is still not profitable, although it is better than following that strategy for all college football betting. Through the first 18 games of this Bowl Season, betting against a simple majority of the public yielded a winning record of 11-7, 61.11%, which is definitely profitable.

Of course, those data all applied to betting on the point spread. Our research extended to betting against the public for Totals (the total, combined number of points both teams score in a game) as well. Over the past 12 years, for all college football betting (not just for Bowl Seasons), betting against the simple majority on Totals wagers would have won at the rate of 50.11%- again, unprofitable. Likewise, betting against that simple majority during the past Bowl Seasons would have won at the rate of 49.71%. Through the first 18 Bowl games of 2014, betting against the simple majority for Totals was an even 9-9 proposition.

Betting with or against a simple majority of the public has not proven to be profitable during or before Bowl Season. The figures begin to change, however, when the search goes beyond a simple majority (of anything greater than 50%) and extends to a decided majority, like 65%. An in-depth discussion of the historical results of such a study is a matter for another article, but suffice it to say, betting against the decided majority of 65% of the public this Bowl Season would have resulted in beating the spread 3 times while losing just once, and beating the Totals line 4 times and losing 5 times.

Contrarian betting, as a general strategy in college football wagering, has not proven to be profitable. There are times, however, where such a strategy is advantageous- particularly when it comes to spread betting against a decided majority of the public, and especially during Bowl Season.

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Steve G
Las Vegas Nevada, 89101